Indian experts warn of “major military offensive” from China/ENG

2012. február 29./Phayul.com/TibetPress

DHARAMSHALA, February 29: A hard-hitting report by an independent group of Indian analysts has warned that China may resort to territorial grabs on India, including through a "major military offensive."

"Our frontiers with China have been mostly stable for some years now. However, China could assert its territorial claims (especially in the Arunachal sector or Ladakh) by the use of force," says the report titled "Non-Alignment 2.0: A Foreign and Strategic Policy for the 21st century."

The report argues that India can't "entirely dismiss the possibility of a major military offensive in Arunachal Pradesh or Ladakh" and suggest a response with "a strategy of quid pro quo.”

National Security Adviser Shiv Shankar Menon and two of his former predecessors M.K. Narayanan and Brajesh Mishra were present at the release Tuesday evening in New Delhi.

Taking a leaf out of the report, Brajesh Mishra called China a “hostile country,” consistently backing Pakistan to keep India confined to South Asia.

"China knows that as long as India is embroiled in South Asia, India will not be able to play a larger role in Southeast Asia or in the larger world," said Mishra.

The report says that China will remain a “significant foreign policy and security challenge for India” and suggests that in the case of a military offensive, India should take similar action across the Line of Actual Control: a strategy of quid pro quo.

“It (China) is the one major power which impinges directly on India's geopolitical space,” the report says. “As its economic and military capabilities expand, its power differential with India is likely to widen."

In the event of a “land grab,” the report says that India will need "a mix of defensive and offensive capabilities" and recommends that India must prepare itself to trigger an insurgency in the areas occupied by Chinese forces and develop the capability to interdict the logistics and military infrastructure in Tibet.

In December last, Chinese President Hu Jintao had told its navy to “accelerate modernisation” and “prepare for war.” Earlier this month a Global research group IHS in a report had forecasted that Beijing's military expenditure will double from its 2011 US$119.8 billion to US$ 238.2 billion by 2015 and in the course exceed the total military budget spent by the region's 12 key defense markets, including Japan and India.

The release of the report coincides with the two-day visit of Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi to India as part of the mutually agreed mechanism of annual exchange of visits at the foreign ministers level.

The report has been co-authored by a group of analysts comprising Shyam Saran, former foreign secretary; Nandan Nilekani; Lt General (retired) Prakash Menon, military advisor to the National Security Council Secretariat; Sunil Khilnani, professor of history at King's College; Pratap Bhanu Mehta, president, Centre for Policy Research; Rajiv Kumar, FICCI secretary general; Srinath Raghavan, senior fellow at CPR; and Siddharth Vardarajan (Editor, The Hindu).